Large vessel shipping trend drives market polarization
The large vessel shipping trend is creating strong polarization across the global maritime transport market. While container freight rates are gradually declining, vessel charter rates remain elevated, forming contrasting dynamics between shipping segments.
This shift is reshaping competition, profitability, and long-term investment strategies in the shipping industry.
Growth supported by freight rates and cargo volume
In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s seaport and shipping industry recorded robust growth in revenue and profit compared to the same period last year.
Key growth drivers included:
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Stable cargo throughput
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Elevated container freight rates
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Strong FDI inflows
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Manufacturing recovery
Although freight rates cooled from peak volatility, they remained high enough to sustain healthy carrier margins.
Container throughput across major ports such as Hai Phong, Cai Mep – Thi Vai, and Ho Chi Minh City continued rising, supporting terminal utilization.
Operational efficiency boosts profitability
In Q2 2025, industry-wide revenue and gross profit increased year-on-year.
Growth was fueled by:
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Cost optimization
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Improved berth productivity
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Expansion of integrated logistics services
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Rising international cargo demand
These improvements strengthened investor confidence in the sector’s medium-term outlook.
Leading companies and long-term strategies
In port operations, Gemadept (GMD) remained a standout performer, supported by rising capacity at Gemalink and Nam Dinh Vu terminals.
Its advantages include:
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Large logistics land bank
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Infrastructure expansion plans
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Stable cargo growth
Vinalines (MVN) also improved performance through fleet restructuring and focus on higher-margin routes.
In international container shipping:
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VOSCO (VOS) leveraged favorable freight rates
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Hai An (HAH) expanded its container fleet
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Capacity growth supported profit stability
VIP Green Port (VIP) benefited directly from rising export demand in Northern Vietnam.
Freight rates decline but charter rates stay high
According to VPBank Securities, freight rates may trend downward in late 2025 and 2026 due to:
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Global fleet oversupply
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Red Sea route normalization
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Shorter transit times
However, time-charter rates remain high because fleet structure is shifting toward mega-vessels.
8,000+ TEU vessels dominate new orders
Large vessels above 8,000 TEU account for around 80% of newbuilding capacity ordered in 2024–2025.
This large vessel shipping trend leads to:
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Higher feeder vessel demand
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Elevated charter rates for smaller ships
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Profit polarization among carriers
The trend may persist through 2026.
Container throughput may slow later in the year
Despite strong first-half growth, container throughput could decelerate in the second half.
The main reason is that the United States needs time to absorb inventories accumulated during the earlier front-loading phase.
This may temporarily soften shipping demand.
Port expansion projects drive long-term growth
Between now and 2030, multiple new seaport projects in Vietnam will become operational.
These developments will:
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Increase mega-vessel handling capacity
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Expand global market share
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Strengthen Vietnam’s logistics position
Key beneficiaries include:
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Gemadept (GMD)
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Hai An (HAH)
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Vinalines (MVN)
Positive outlook for shipping and port stocks
From an equity market perspective, seaport and container shipping stocks are expected to maintain mid-term attractiveness.
Although freight rates may ease cyclically:
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Rate floors remain high
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Throughput growth is stable
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Logistics revenue is expanding
These factors should sustain positive earnings performance among listed companies.
