Experts optimistic about U.S. economic growth in 2026
Forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2026 remain relatively positive, with projected growth ranging from 2% to 2.8%.
Despite the favorable outlook, logistics experts warn that actual cargo volumes remain low, while supply chain costs continue to rise.
Mr. Alan Murphy, CEO and founder of Sea-Intelligence — a global maritime analytics firm — noted that growth indicators and employment in the logistics and retail sectors are currently strong.
However, he emphasized that much of this growth stems from accelerated imports ahead of upcoming trade policy changes, making it temporary rather than sustainable.
Imports surge ahead of tariff changes
According to the latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economic growth is projected to reach 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
A Sea-Intelligence analysis released last week suggested that the slight slowdown could be a direct result of the “front-loading imports” phenomenon throughout 2025.
In early 2025, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump implemented a series of new tariffs on imports from major trading partners.
The policy aims to:
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Protect domestic industries
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Encourage domestic manufacturing
Following the tariff announcements, U.S. economic activity recorded a sharp increase.
Growth does not reflect real demand
Many economists and trade analysts argue that this growth does not reflect genuine consumer demand.
Major retail chains such as Walmart and Target accelerated inventory stockpiling before tariffs fully took effect.
This created the impression of a dynamic economy, but it was not driven by:
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Rising consumer demand
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Long-term economic trends
U.S. inflation in 2026 faces upward pressure
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently denied that tariffs are fueling inflation. However, many experts find this claim unconvincing.
Financial analytics firm Morningstar forecasts that U.S. inflation in 2026 could reach 2.7%, higher than previous projections.
The main driver is businesses passing tariff-related costs on to consumers.
Risk of inflation exceeding 4%
Researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimate that inflation could exceed 4% by the end of 2026 due to delayed effects of trade policies.
They warn that current optimism about inflation falling back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target is premature.
Risk of “stagflation” from high tariffs
Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, highlighted the risk of tariff-driven stagflation, as:
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Tariffs remain elevated
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Production costs increase
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Businesses cannot fully absorb costs
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Consumers bear higher prices
This scenario could create dual pressure on U.S. economic growth and stability in the coming period.
